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We may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos, if people don’t adhere to social distancing – Lagos commissioner of health


Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi has disclosed that the state’s coronavirus cases might increase to 39,000 in coming weeks if stringent measures are not put in place to stop the spread of the disease. 

Speaking at a press conference on Friday March 27, Prof Abayomi said that they are still tracing about 3,000 primary contacts of those infected with the disease. 

The Commissioner disclosed that the mathematical projection was that the state could have up to 39,000 cases, he also said that it might become a reality if contacts are not observing self-isolating or embracing social distancing. He added that with social distancing, the figure could be limited to 13,000 cases.

Abayomi said; 

“Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst-case scenario is that we may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos. 

“If we add social distancing to active contact tracing, then we will be able to bend the curve further.

“The figures may seem alarming at this point, but this is just to emphasize to the Lagos community to follow instructions of the incident commander to make sure that we practise social distancing.

“Looking at the same timeframe from the introduction of the index case, you can see that Lagos state is not seen anywhere near what Spain, Italy and Iran are showing.

“So, at weeks two and three of our index case, we are flat and at week four, we have 37 cases; while at the same fourth week, Italy, Iran and Spain had more than 20,000 cases.

“So, we are doing something right in the state. Then if we continue to do that, we will remain on the lower trajectory.

“It shows we are keeping the curve flat which is allowing us to keep up with the number of cases we have so far.”


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